May 21, 2026
A blockchain analytics investigation has uncovered what researchers say is statistically impossible accuracy in Polymarket bets placed on U.S. military operations against Iran — sparking Congressional legislation and a warning that prediction markets now pose a direct national security risk.
Bubblemaps, a crypto wallet analysis firm, went public with its findings on May 18 via a series of X posts. Co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman told CoinDesk on May 21 that his team identified 80 onchain bets with a 98% win rate on U.S. strikes and related military events. "Luck alone cannot explain" the results, he said. Nine connected accounts made more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations.
The bets were placed days before the February 28 surprise attacks on Iran, the removal of its supreme leader, and a ceasefire announcement. Smaller losing bets were placed on February 20 — a pattern Bubblemaps reads as deliberate cover to avoid detection.
The national security concern goes beyond the insider trading itself. If the patterns are visible to Bubblemaps, Vaiman argues they are visible to U.S. adversaries. "The issue here is they can make war plans accordingly," he said. "Just to put it bluntly, this could potentially expose the lives of many people." He also flagged a second risk: that state actors could intentionally place bets to create false signals and mislead enemies — turning prediction markets into an information warfare tool. He noted separately that journalists covering these markets have faced extortion threats from bettors protecting their positions.
Vaiman was careful to limit the scope of his claim. "We have no proof these are military insiders or even Americans," he said. "The data is suspicious and may indicate someone with an unfair informational advantage."
The investigation arrives after a confirmed case of military insider trading on the same platform. In April, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke — a U.S. Army Green Beret — was arrested for making $400,000 on Polymarket bets on the Venezuela raid to extract Nicolás Maduro, a raid he personally participated in. A separate study published that month found only 3% of "informed" traders drive prediction market accuracy.
Military-linked wagers have grown substantially: bets on military plans and outcomes have exceeded $1 billion on Polymarket in 2026 alone.
Congress has responded. Representative Mike Levin and Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to prohibit contracts on war and similar events. Levin wrote on X that "the insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than any of us could have known."
Two weeks before the Bubblemaps findings became public, Polymarket announced a partnership with Chainalysis to bring Wall Street-grade compliance oversight to its platform. Polymarket did not respond to CoinDesk's request for comment by publication time. The company has previously stated that insider trading "is not welcome on Polymarket" and that suspicious activity is reported to relevant authorities.
Vaiman declined to blame Polymarket's design, noting that KYC bypass via cheap VPN or purchased accounts is "an internet-wide problem."
Sources: CoinDesk investigation, May 21, 2026; Bubblemaps X thread, May 18, 2026; Rep. Mike Levin X post; CoinDesk Green Beret arrest coverage, April 23, 2026; Polymarket–Chainalysis partnership, April 30, 2026.