Mark Zuckerberg has personally assigned a small team to build a standalone prediction markets app code-named "Arena," The New York Times reported on June 23, citing unnamed employees familiar with the project. Meta has not confirmed or denied the plans.

Arena would launch as a points-based platform. Users would receive a daily allotment of virtual currency to bet on future events, with real-money wagering left open as a possibility for later versions. The app is designed to be separate from Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, though those platforms could eventually funnel users in. Meta described the project internally as "experimental but a top priority," per two employees cited by the Times.

Market context

The project pits Meta's 3.56 billion daily active users (as of April 2026) against a fast-growing sector. Kalshi and Polymarket together generated roughly $50 billion in trading volume in 2025; year-to-date 2026 figures have exceeded $130 billion, with monthly volume climbing from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion by April 2026. In June alone, Kalshi logged $18.36 billion in contracts; Polymarket, the dominant on-chain market, recorded $6.77 billion in non-U.S. volume and roughly $2 billion in U.S.-based activity over the same period. Bernstein estimates the sector could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by 2030.

The on-chain question

The crypto consequence centers on what Arena does to on-chain volume. Polymarket settles trades through smart contracts on a public blockchain without custodians. A Meta points-based wrapper requires no wallet, no gas, no stablecoin deposit. It could pull the same wagering impulse into a familiar mobile interface and divert users who might otherwise go on-chain. The offsetting argument: a product reaching 3.5 billion users that normalizes event-outcome betting as a consumer habit could expand the market faster than it displaces any existing player.

Kalshi, CFTC-regulated and off-chain, leads U.S. volume and secured a federal court ruling in 2024 permitting event contracts on political races. News of Arena sent DraftKings shares more than 2 percent lower intraday; Flutter Entertainment, FanDuel's parent, also declined.