Prediction markets cut the chance of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becoming law this year to 43%, down from about 74% a month ago, as bipartisan Senate floor negotiations collapsed in early June, leaving sponsors short of the 60 votes needed before Congress breaks for summer.

Polymarket showed a 43% probability of the bill clearing both chambers and receiving a presidential signature by December 31, 2026, as of June 24. A separate prediction platform priced passage before 2027 at roughly 38%, per crypto.news.

The Senate has roughly 31 floor session days before its August recess target, according to Yahoo Finance. Brian Gardner, Stifel's chief Washington policy strategist, wrote that "in order for the CLARITY Act to pass in 2026, it probably needs to get through the Senate by the end of July, preferably in June." A missed summer window would push any revival into a midterm cycle where broad crypto legislation rarely advances.

Why talks broke down

Negotiations stalled in the week of June 9 on two disputes.

The first is Section 604, a blockchain-investigation provision that law enforcement associations oppose. The National District Attorneys' Association said the section would "severely impede the ability of law enforcement and prosecutors to investigate, trace, and prosecute criminal activity involving cryptocurrency." Senators Mark Warner and Catherine Cortez Masto have tied their floor votes to law enforcement sign-off on that language.

The second is an ethics provision. Republicans and the White House withdrew support for allowing state attorneys general to bring civil enforcement actions against the Justice Department over ethics enforcement failures. Democrats rejected the substitute as inadequate, arguing the dispute was tied to the president's crypto business interests: it would limit enforcement to the U.S. Attorney General, who serves at the president's pleasure.

Vote math

The bill needs 60 votes to break a filibuster. Assuming all 53 Republicans vote yes, lead sponsors Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Ruben Gallego, Bernie Moreno, and Cynthia Lummis need seven Democrats to cross over. Two voted yes in committee: Gallego, a Democratic co-sponsor, and Senator Angela Alsobrooks. Both have stated their support is conditional and may not translate to a floor vote. Five remain unresolved. White House Crypto Council Executive Director Patrick Witt is actively engaged on the remaining votes.

What failure costs

The CLARITY Act, which cleared the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025, would sort digital assets into three regulatory categories: securities under the SEC, digital commodities under the CFTC, and stablecoins under joint oversight. Passage would also expand CFTC authority over spot markets. If the bill misses the August floor window, US crypto markets revert to the existing patchwork: SEC enforcement actions setting the commodity-or-security line, no governing statute, and state-by-state fragmentation for every US-facing exchange, lending protocol, and fund.